Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 December 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 673 km/s at 06/1817Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/1119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 485 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 102
  Predicted    07 Dec-09 Dec 100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  020/028
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  022/025-016/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 20%20%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 55%55%40%

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