Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 December 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/0810Z from Region 2458 (N09W51). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 588 km/s at 01/1422Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 095
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  009/008-006/005-007/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm35%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%10%20%

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