Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/0538Z from Region 2454 (N13W53). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
22/0636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2140Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 123 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 40% |
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