Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 November 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 538 km/s at 19/0019Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 298 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 108
  Predicted    20 Nov-22 Nov 108/108/110
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  014/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  011/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  008/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 25%20%20%

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