Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 November 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at 14/0259Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 106
  Predicted    15 Nov-17 Nov 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  012/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 30%20%20%

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