Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 10 2350 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2015 *** CORRECTION***

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1411Z from Region 2443 (N07W95). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 766 km/s at 10/1505Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2254Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 10/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 105
  Predicted    11 Nov-13 Nov 110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  022/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  026/038
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  013/018-022/030-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 20%25%10%
Major-severe storm 05%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 25%25%30%
Major-severe storm 50%60%40%

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