Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 10 2350 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2015 *** CORRECTION***IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/1411Z from Region 2443 (N07W95). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 766 km/s at 10/1505Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2112Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2254Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3
pfu at 10/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 19551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 105 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 022/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 026/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 013/018-022/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 40% |
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