Viewing archive of Monday, 9 November 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 09/1312Z from Region 2449 (S11E32). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 634 km/s at 09/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/1926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1448Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17885 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 108
  Predicted    10 Nov-12 Nov 105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  020/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%25%15%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 55%30%20%

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