Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 04/1352Z from Region 2443 (N06W09). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 770 km/s at 04/0405Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/0444Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4404 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M65%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 114
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  023/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  028/041
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  014/015-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%30%25%

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