Viewing archive of Monday, 2 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
02/1000Z from Region 2445 (N15W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
362 km/s at 02/0638Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1229Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet
to major storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
day three (05 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 122 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 038/062-016/021-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 70% | 35% |
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