Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1752Z from Region 2443 (N07E43). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at 31/0905Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/2048Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (02 Nov) and active to major storm levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 119
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  008/008-036/065-033/050

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm05%35%40%
Major-severe storm01%40%30%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%01%05%
Minor storm30%10%10%
Major-severe storm20%90%85%

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