Viewing archive of Friday, 30 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 30/2016Z from Region 2443 (N06E56). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at 30/1826Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 29/2125Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Oct 121
  Predicted    31 Oct-02 Nov 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 20%20%20%

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