Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 October 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/0021Z from Region 2443 (N05E67). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 29/2025Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 29/1000Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 29/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Oct 113
  Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        29 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  010/012-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm35%35%30%

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