Viewing archive of Friday, 23 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct,
26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 23/0412Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2203Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0409Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 115 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 013/020-019/024-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 50% | 25% |
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