Viewing archive of Friday, 16 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/2331Z from Region 2434 (S10E34). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 470 km/s at 15/2303Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 109
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  009/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:266
Current stretch spotless days:39

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.8
22001M1.3
32002C7.1
42006C5.7
52015C5.6
ApG
1200340G2
2199833G1
3200521G1
4201519
5200716
*since 1994

Social networks