Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/1338Z from Region 2434 (S08E60). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 603 km/s at 14/0639Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7388 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M30%40%40%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 101
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 100/105/115
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  018/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  019/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  014/018-014/018-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%30%

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