Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 13/1411Z from Region 2434 (S08E74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 617 km/s at 13/0531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10091 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M 30%30%40%
Class X 01%01%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 096
  Predicted    14 Oct-16 Oct 105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  016/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  018/026
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  021/030-021/030-021/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 65%65%65%

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