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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 595 km/s at 10/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 60051 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 085
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  013/020-013/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%35%
Minor storm25%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm25%35%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%55%

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