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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 735 km/s at 10/0525Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 46271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M01%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 081
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 080/085/090
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  015/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/012-013/020-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%30%
Minor storm10%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%35%
Major-severe storm35%60%40%

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