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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 809 km/s at 09/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 57093 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 081
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 080/085/090
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  041/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  020/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  011/012-010/012-013/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%60%

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