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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at minor storm to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 844 km/s at 08/0825Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21590 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 080
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  044/105
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  038/061
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  020/027-011/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%35%35%

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