Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0241Z from old Region 2422 (S20, L=097). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 533 km/s at 04/1449Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/0039Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Oct 088
  Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        04 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Oct  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  010/012-009/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%25%25%

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