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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/0633Z from Region 2422 (S20W89). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 03/0500Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/1314Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (04 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Class M10%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Oct 097
  Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  025/033-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%20%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm65%35%25%

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