Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 September 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1712Z from Region 2415 (S19W41). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 19/0518Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/0628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 425 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Sep, 21 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 106
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  020/030-022/030-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%35%

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