Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 16/1920Z from Region 2415 (S20W02). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 533 km/s at 16/0553Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8045 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 109
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  017/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%25%

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