Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 September 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/2137Z from Region 2414 (S10W20). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 658 km/s at 12/0023Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10410 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (13 Sep, 15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 099
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  036/053
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  023/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  019/025-012/015-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%40%45%

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