Viewing archive of Friday, 11 September 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/1132Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 11/0731Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/0731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Sep 093
  Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        11 Sep 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Sep  036/061
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  028/040-019/025-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm70%50%40%

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