Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 26/1353Z from Region 2403 (S16W44). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 26/0413Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 526 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
Class M60%55%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Aug 126
  Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        26 Aug 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Aug  020/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  016/016-013/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm65%40%30%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/29M3.2
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42024M3.2
52001M3.13
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks