Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 25/0631Z from Region 2403 (S15W31). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 25/0113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1707Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1837 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M60%55%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 121
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  007/006-009/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%35%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%45%45%

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