Viewing archive of Friday, 24 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1755Z from Region 2389 (S11E62). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul,
26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 24/0354Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2226Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2215Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 092 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 021/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 011/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
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