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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 700 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 593 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 110
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  025/041
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  014/018-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

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