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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 12 2150 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 667 km/s at 12/2021Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 654 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jul 116
  Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  020/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  009/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%20%

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