Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 July 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/1836Z from Region 2385 (N08W68). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 689 km/s at 11/1125Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 11/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jul 120
  Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        11 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jul  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  011/015-009/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%30%25%

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