Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/1836Z from Region 2385 (N08W68). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 689 km/s at 11/1125Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 11/0229Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 120 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 011/015-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 25% |
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