Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun,
27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7
pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels
on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 80% | 95% | 95% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 102 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 0NA/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 022/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 013/015-025/045-037/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 79% | 79% |
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