Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
24/1529Z from Region 2371 (N11W40). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
778 km/s at 24/1415Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/1320Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2329Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 30 pfu at
24/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 26376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active levels on day one (25 Jun) and quiet levels on days two
and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
day one (25 Jun), are likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Jun) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 80% | 60% | 40% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 110 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 047/078 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 017/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 35% | 10% |
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