Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1219Z from Region 2371 (N12W28). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 1054 km/s at 23/1051Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 22/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 23/0135Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 529 pfu at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit were contaminated by proton flux and therefore unreliable.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (26 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton99%99%90%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 116
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  057/074
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  044/083
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  028/040-048/080-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%40%
Minor storm40%35%25%
Major-severe storm25%40%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm79%85%65%

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