Viewing archive of Friday, 19 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
19/0927Z from Region 2371 (N13E27). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
444 km/s at 18/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1148Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0948Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
18/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1057 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (21 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Jun).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 137 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 011/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/005-007/008-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 65% |
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