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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 May, 29 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached averaged velocities less than 350 km/s. Total IMF reached a peak of 7 nT. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 May, 30 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M01%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 095
  Predicted   28 May-30 May 095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        27 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  007/008-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%30%25%

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