Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 May 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1159Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 576 km/s at 19/1351Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 18/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 May) and quiet levels on day three (22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 110
  Predicted    20 May-22 May 108/105/105
  90 Day Mean        19 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  016/022
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 30%25%10%

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