Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at 17/0716Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9241 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and quiet levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M10%10%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 120
  Predicted   18 May-20 May 115/105/095
  90 Day Mean        17 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  012/015-010/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%10%

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