Viewing archive of Friday, 15 May 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 15 2230 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0011Z from Region 2342 (N17W22). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 639 km/s at 14/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8787 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 May, 18 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 137
  Predicted   16 May-18 May 135/125/115
  90 Day Mean        15 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/010-016/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm35%45%40%

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