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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 13/1818Z from Region 2345 (N16W16). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 759 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 13/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 12/2340Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 12/2235Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 157
  Predicted   14 May-16 May 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        13 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  032/046
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  018/025-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%10%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%40%10%

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