Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/1151Z from Region 2339 (N14W19). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 455 km/s at 12/1850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/0649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1459Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 12/0730Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 May 163
  Predicted   13 May-15 May 160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        12 May 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  015/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 May  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  019/025-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%45%25%

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