Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 April 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 21/1545Z from Region 2322 (N11W87). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 628 km/s at 21/0632Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 20/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1433 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (24 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Apr 154
  Predicted    22 Apr-24 Apr 155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        21 Apr 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Apr  020/031
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  019/025-015/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%30%20%
Minor storm 25%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm 20%30%25%
Major-severe storm 65%35%25%

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