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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 18/2131Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6550 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Apr, 21 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 152
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr 150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  010/012-012/015-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%45%
Minor storm05%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm35%45%65%

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