Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 April 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 18/1419Z from Region 2321 (N11W22). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 635 km/s at 17/2305Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3744 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 148
  Predicted    19 Apr-21 Apr 150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  020/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  007/008-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 25%35%35%

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