Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
16/0907Z from Region 2324 (N18E34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 720 km/s at 16/2049Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/0503Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0524Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2108
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 150 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 020/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 025/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 016/020-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 25% |
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