Viewing archive of Friday, 10 April 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 10/0803Z from Region 2320 (S13W39). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 493 km/s at 10/0153Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 10/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/1829Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 115
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  028/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  014/018-006/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%05%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%20%10%

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