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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 09/1901Z from Region 2320 (S12W25). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 429 km/s at 09/1453Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 113
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  014/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  014/015-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm20%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%20%20%

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