Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 April 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/0007Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 606 km/s at 05/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 122
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/008-009/012-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%35%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%35%45%

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