Viewing archive of Friday, 3 April 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0726Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 605 km/s at 03/1650Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0735Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 120
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  022/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  012/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%20%

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